In a major leak, Microsoft has accidentally disclosed many of its past, present, and future plans for its gaming division, such as details about its next-generation Xbox, planned acquisitions, and a potential new model of the Xbox Series X in late 2024.
The leak appears to have been caused by a clerical error. Microsoft uploaded a number of files to a federal court website last week as exhibits in the Federal Trade Commission’s ongoing attempts to prevent Microsoft’s acquisition of California-based game developer Activision Blizzard.
The upload accidentally included a number of confidential documents, as per Bloomberg, which included schedules, internal communications, design files, and more. This was initially noticed by users at the video game message board ResetEra on Tuesday.
Microsoft’s ongoing fight with the FTC has been huge for giving fans and press a look behind the scenes at the video game industry. Sony accidentally revealed some key budget numbers during June’s hearing in San Francisco. But this weekend’s leak was effectively an all-access pass for Microsoft’s Xbox plans.
The reveal that’s gotten all the press comes from an August 2020 email between Xbox head Phil Spencer and Takeshi Numoto, Microsoft’s commercial chief marketing officer, which discussed the possibility of Microsoft purchasing Nintendo.
Spencer noted here that Microsoft was “playing the long game,” as Nintendo was in good enough financial shape in the summer of 2020 that it wasn’t likely to agree to a voluntary merger. However, he also described a theoretical merger between the companies as a “career moment” for himself, and argued that Nintendo’s future “exists off of their own hardware.”
Side note: Both fans and analysts have argued for years that Nintendo would be best-served by adopting a new position as a third-party software developer and abandoning its hardware entirely, as its competitor Sega did in the early 2000s. This was a more sensible argument in earlier software generations, such as with the GameCube, but still resurfaces from time to time, chiefly among PC gamers who would really like to play new Zelda games.
The documents also confirm several reports that Microsoft intends to continue making physical Xbox units. The next-generation Xbox, Microsoft’s entry into the tenth generation of gaming consoles, is reportedly planned for release in 2028 as a hybrid unit, which will combine both current client-side loading with the cloud.
This approach, as noted by the Verge, is similar to how the current version of Microsoft Flight Simulator works. That game runs off its local installation, but also uses Microsoft’s cloud servers to stream photorealistic scenery to your system as you play.
The leak included Microsoft’s planned roadmap for the new Xbox. As per its internal timeline, Microsoft is presently doing the research and paperwork on the project, with plans to move into the concept/pre-production stage later this year. In theory, though, the 2028 Xbox would use both machine learning and cloud technology in conjunction with its own hardware. Relatively little about a 2028 game would run or be rendered locally, or have to be designed ahead of time.
It’s worth mentioning that all of the documents in the leak dated back to last year. Many of Microsoft’s plans could have, and now likely will, change.
Other reveals from this latest Xbox leak include:
- The next generation of the Xbox might not simply be a single console, but would consist of multiple devices that share the same OS. This would further Microsoft’s current “Play Anywhere” philosophy, but would extend it to the production of a handheld system, alongside web browsers, phone apps, PCs, and a “cloud console.”
- There are plans on the table for a new model of the Xbox Series X. Code-named Brooklin, this mid-generation “refresh” of the Series X features a new cylindrical design, 2 TB of internal storage, a single USB-C port in front, no disc drive, updated wireless technologies, and improved sustainability via lower power draw. It’s planned to hit the market at the same MSRP as the original model ($499) in or around holiday 2024.
- Along the same lines, a new model of the Series S, code-named Ellewood, is also in production. Like Brooklin, it would ship at the same price point as the current Series S, but would include 1 TB of internal storage, better wi-fi, and several innovations that are intended to improve the unit’s overall sustainability.
- Brooklin and Ellewood would come with a new generation of the Xbox gamepad. This new controller, code-named Sebile, sticks with many of the design elements of the current Series X|S “Merlin” game pad, but adds haptic feedback, quieter buttons, an internal rechargeable battery, an accelerometer, and improved durability and longevity. It’s planned to be compatible with Xbox, Bluetooth, and “Direct-to-Cloud.”
- Notably, the Sebile would also shed the current “share” button on Merlin pads in favor of the smaller layout that’s currently found on the Elite v2 controller.
- Both consoles and the Sebile are noted to be made with recycled material, and would ship in 100% recyclable packaging.
- At one point, Microsoft had also considered making an offer to acquire Bellevue, Wash.-based Valve Software, which operates the Steam digital storefront. The board of directors at Microsoft were fully supportive of doing so, as per Spencer’s leaked email, but the leak doesn’t contain details about whether that bid was successful, if it’s ever happened at all.
- Several unannounced games from Xbox subsidiary Bethesda Softworks were mentioned in the leaks. These include remastered editions of Fallout 3 and The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion; a sequel to the 2022 urban horror game Ghostwire: Tokyo; something called Doom Year Zero; and Dishonored 3, a surprise follow-up to Arkane Studios’ dark fantasy immersive sim.
- The leak contained a number of 2022 emails from Xbox VP Sarah Bond, which included estimates for how much several third-party publishers might ask for in exchange for their games being added to the Xbox Game Pass service at launch. This included Star Wars: Jedi Survivor ($300 million) and Assassin’s Creed Mirage ($100 million).
- Microsoft has been notoriously secretive about the internal figures that surround the Game Pass service, so Bond’s leaked emails provide a rare look at some of the potential math.
- Xbox initially estimated that Baldur’s Gate III would only cost $5 million to launch day-and-date on Xbox. BG3 had originally been announced as a Google Stadia exclusive, which led Xbox to describe it as a “second-run Stadia RPG.” It’s since turned out to be one of the biggest hits of 2023.
Update: Xbox head Phil Spencer took to Twitter on Tuesday afternoon to address the leak, which reportedly follows up on an internal email that was sent out to Microsoft employees.
“We’ve seen the conversation around old emails and documents,” Spencer wrote. “It is hard to see our team’s work shared in this way because so much has changed and there’s so much to be excited about right now, and in the future. We will share the real plans when we are ready.”
